The Local Lowdown

San Mateo holds the high ground as its neighbors ease back

August brought the usual late-summer cooling to Silicon Valley... but the year-over-year story remains split in a way that's worth paying close attention to. San Mateo County continues to lead the region, with the median single-family home selling for $2,050,000... an increase of 7.89% over last August's $1,900,000. The figure is off the $2,210,000 peak set in May and down 3.35% from July... but that kind of seasonal fade as summer winds down is completely normal. What's more meaningful is that San Mateo County has now spent six consecutive months above the $1.9 million mark. That's consistency, not a fluke.

Santa Clara County posted a median of $1,850,000... a 1.70% decline from last August and the third consecutive monthly step down from the $2,100,000 April reading. Santa Cruz County came in at $1,350,000... down 1.60% year-over-year and 1.82% from July, though still comfortably inside the narrow $1.2 million to $1.4 million band it has occupied all year. Modest pullbacks in both counties... but neither is showing signs of anything more dramatic than a seasonal exhale.

The condo picture is noisier this month. San Mateo County condos were essentially flat year-over-year at $825,000... up just 0.24%. Santa Clara County condos slid 6.16% to $685,000... continuing a soft stretch that has seen that market trade below $720,000 in four of the last five months. Santa Cruz County condos jumped to $800,000... up 16.11% year-over-year, but that number deserves a note of caution given the thin transaction counts and the dramatic swings this segment has shown throughout 2026, from $619,000 in July all the way to $1,012,000 back in March. One month's condo median in Santa Cruz is rarely the whole story.

Supply tightens even as sellers step back into the market

The inventory picture shifted in a direction sellers will appreciate this month. There were 1,856 single-family homes for sale across Silicon Valley in August... down 2.78% from July and down 11.62% from the 2,100 available last August. That marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline from the May peak of 2,195... and it means available supply is thinner than it was at the same point in each of the two prior years.

What makes this tightening particularly interesting is where it's coming from. It's not a lack of sellers... new single-family listings actually rose to 1,451, up 9.51% year-over-year, suggesting homeowners are still willing to test the market. The squeeze is coming from the demand side being a touch quieter than earlier in the year... with 1,073 single-family homes selling in August, down 7.58% from last August. Fewer closings and fewer homes on the shelf at the same time... a combination that keeps the market feeling tight without feeling frantic. That's actually a pretty healthy dynamic heading into fall.

The condo market tightened even faster. Just 765 units were listed for sale... an 11.76% drop from July and a 13.27% decline from last August's 882. After a year in which condo supply consistently ran near or above 900 units, August's reading is the lowest since December. New condo listings edged down slightly and sales held essentially steady... so this is a genuine supply contraction, not a demand story.

Two weeks or less across the single-family market

Speed remains the defining characteristic of Silicon Valley's single-family segment heading into fall. San Mateo County homes sold in an average of just 12 days... a 14.29% improvement over the 14 days recorded last August and two days faster than July. Santa Clara County came in at 13 days... down 7.14% year-over-year. The two counties have been trading places within a day or two of each other for most of 2026... and together they paint a picture of a market where prepared buyers need to be ready to move the moment a home hits their radar.

The most dramatic improvement this month came from Santa Cruz County, where homes averaged just 17 days on market... a 34.62% reduction from last August's 26 days and a sharp acceleration from July's 24. That's a meaningful turnaround for a market that saw days on market balloon into the 40s over the winter. Santa Cruz is moving with real purpose again.

Condos continue to require more patience across the board. San Mateo County condos averaged 37 days... essentially unchanged from last August and five days quicker than July. Santa Clara County condos took 35 days... the slowest reading in that county since the January spike. Santa Cruz County condos averaged 36 days... which looks dramatic compared to last August's unusually quick 15 days, but is actually a substantial improvement from the 70 days logged in July and the 96 days recorded back in March. The direction of travel matters more than any single month's reading... and the direction for Santa Cruz condos is clearly improving.

Silicon Valley's sellers keep the upper hand heading into fall

One of the clearest ways to read a market is through Months of Supply Inventory, or MSI. California historically averages around three months... which is considered balanced. Below three months favors sellers. Above three months shifts the advantage toward buyers.

Silicon Valley's single-family market remains firmly in seller's territory across all three counties... and in some cases it's gotten tighter. San Mateo County sits at just 1.2 months of supply... down 33.33% from the 1.8 months available last August and the lowest reading since December. That's an exceptionally constrained market by any measure. Santa Clara County holds steady at 1.6 months... unchanged year-over-year and deep in seller's territory for three straight months. Santa Cruz County comes in at 3.4 months... the most balanced of the three, but still down 22.73% from last August's 4.4 months and hovering right at the edge of seller's territory. Single-family buyers across all three counties should come in prepared to compete and move quickly... because the data leaves no room for ambiguity on that point.

The condo market tells a more nuanced story... and the headline this month is San Mateo County crossing a significant line. At just 2.5 months of supply... down 34.21% from 3.8 months a year ago... San Mateo condos have officially entered seller's market territory for the first time since late last year. That's a meaningful shift for buyers who may have been counting on more negotiating room in that segment. Santa Clara County condos sit at 3.7 months... just on the buyer's side of balanced, and down from 4.3 in July. Santa Cruz County condos remain the most buyer-friendly segment in the region at 4.3 months... though even that represents a 23.21% improvement for sellers compared to last August's 5.6 months. The window of buyer advantage in Santa Cruz condos is real... but it's narrowing.

Bottom Line

Silicon Valley is heading into fall with single-family inventory tighter than it's been in years, homes moving in under two weeks across all three counties, and seller's market conditions that continue to deepen rather than ease. San Mateo County is the standout on every front... leading on price, tightest on supply, and now crossing into seller's market territory on the condo side as well. Santa Clara and Santa Cruz Counties have pulled back modestly on single-family prices, but the pace of sales and the supply picture tell you that demand hasn't gone anywhere.

For condo buyers, Santa Clara and Santa Cruz Counties still offer genuine negotiating room... but that advantage is gradually shrinking, and the San Mateo condo market has already shifted decisively. Whether you're buying or selling in Silicon Valley this fall, the details of your specific county and property type matter enormously... because the experience of a buyer in Santa Cruz condos and a buyer chasing single-family homes in San Mateo are almost entirely different markets right now. Having someone in your corner who understands those nuances isn't just helpful... it's what makes the difference between the outcome you want and the one you settle for.

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