The Local Lowdown

San Mateo pulls ahead as the peninsula premium widens

July continued the two-track story that has been defining Silicon Valley's single-family market. San Mateo County led the region with a median sale price of $2,123,000... a strong 10.57% jump from $1,920,000 a year ago. The figure eased about 1.3% from June's $2,150,000, but that kind of modest monthly dip is completely normal seasonal cooling rather than any sign of a reversal. San Mateo has now printed medians above $2.1 million in five of the last six months... that's a level of consistency that speaks for itself.

Santa Clara County has flattened out by comparison. Its July median of $1,900,000 is up just 1.06% year-over-year and marks the third consecutive monthly decline from May's $2,050,000. Not a dramatic drop... but a pattern worth noting. Santa Cruz County came in at $1,375,000... down a slight 1.47% from last July but up 1.85% from June, continuing the choppy month-to-month movement that has characterized that county for much of the past year.

The condo market was even more scattered this month. San Mateo County condos posted a median of $840,000... an 8.88% year-over-year gain and the strongest reading since early 2025. Santa Clara County condos recovered to $711,000 after June's $661,500 low... a healthy monthly rebound, though still down 7.06% from last July. Santa Cruz County condos told the opposite story, falling to $619,000 from $728,750 in June... a 20.13% year-over-year drop. With thin transaction counts in that segment, single-month swings can be misleading... but the broader trend in Santa Cruz condos has clearly softened and sellers there should be pricing with that reality in mind.

Fewer homes to choose from, and the gap keeps widening

Supply remains the defining feature of this market... and it's tightening further. There were 1,849 single-family homes for sale across Silicon Valley in July... down 22.18% from the 2,376 available last July and down another 5.28% from June. That's the tightest July reading on record, and it continues a pattern we've been watching play out all year... inventory peaking earlier and lower each spring before compressing further into summer.

New listings came in at 1,434... off 4.59% year-over-year. Sold listings held essentially steady at 1,222 compared with 1,234 a year ago. What that tells us is that demand hasn't fallen off... sellers are simply not bringing as much to market, and buyers are working through whatever does come available. It's a supply problem, not a demand problem.

The condo market is following a similar path with an encouraging twist. There were 835 condos listed for sale in July... down 12.84% year-over-year. But sold listings surged 23.44% to 258 from 209 a year ago. That combination of shrinking supply and stronger absorption is the most positive signal the condo segment has sent in months... and it helps explain the price rebounds we're seeing in San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties on the condo side.

Two weeks for houses, much longer for some condos

The pace of single-family sales remains impressive across Silicon Valley, even as it's drifted slightly from the February and March lows... which is the normal summer rhythm. San Mateo County homes averaged 14 days on market in July... exactly matching last July. Santa Clara County ticked up to 14 days from 13 a year ago, a modest 7.69% increase. Both counties are still moving in under two weeks, which by any measure remains an extraordinarily fast-paced market. Santa Cruz County is the outlier, with homes averaging 25 days... up 38.89% from last July and a notable jump from June's 17 days.

The condo market is where patience is genuinely required right now. San Mateo County condos averaged 42 days on market... up 40% from 30 days last July. Santa Clara County condos came in at 32 days versus 25 a year ago, a 28% increase. And Santa Cruz County condos are the clear outlier at 70 days... up from just 27 days last July. For condo sellers in Silicon Valley... especially in Santa Cruz County... planning for a longer runway and pricing accurately from day one isn't just good advice, it's essential. Overpricing in a segment moving at this pace will cost you time and ultimately money.

Houses stay firmly in sellers' hands while condos tilt the other way

One of the clearest ways to read a market is through Months of Supply Inventory, or MSI. California historically averages around three months... which is considered balanced. Below three months favors sellers. Above three months shifts the advantage toward buyers.

Silicon Valley's single-family market has actually tightened further over the past year... and the numbers reflect that clearly. San Mateo County sits at just 1.2 months of supply... down 40% from 2.0 months last July and the lowest July figure on record. Santa Clara County holds at 1.6 months... down 11.11% year-over-year. And Santa Cruz County, historically the loosest of the three, has compressed to 3.4 months from 4.8 a year ago... putting it right at the edge of balanced territory rather than the buyer's market it was last summer. Across all three counties, single-family buyers should come in prepared for competition... because the data leaves no room for ambiguity on that point.

The condo segment offers a genuinely different experience depending on where you're looking. San Mateo County condos have tightened to 2.9 months of supply... down 29.27% from last July and now sitting in balanced-to-seller territory. Santa Clara County condos sit at 4.1 months... up 5.13% year-over-year and the only measure in this entire report moving in buyers' favor. Santa Cruz County condos also register at 4.1 months, though that's actually a significant improvement from 6.6 months a year ago. If a condo is on your radar... particularly in Santa Clara or Santa Cruz County... you'll find more options and more room to negotiate than almost anywhere else in this region right now.

Bottom Line

Silicon Valley's July market is telling a story of divergence... and knowing which side of that divide you're on matters more than ever. San Mateo County is the clear standout, with single-family prices up more than 10% year-over-year and inventory at record lows. Santa Clara County is holding steady but flattening, and Santa Cruz County is showing some softening on both the single-family and condo sides. Across the region, the single-family market remains firmly in seller's territory with homes moving in about two weeks and supply tighter than it's been in years. The condo market is a different conversation entirely... longer marketing times, more inventory in certain counties, and real negotiating room for buyers who are willing to consider attached housing. Whatever side of this market you're on this summer, the key is understanding exactly where you stand... because a strategy built on last year's conditions or broad regional headlines is going to miss the nuances that actually determine your outcome here.