The Local Lowdown

San Mateo County surges while the rest of Silicon Valley pulls back

May brought a split picture to Silicon Valley's single-family market... and the contrast between counties is hard to ignore. San Mateo County had a standout month, with the median home selling for $2,210,000... up an impressive 6.87% year-over-year. That's a meaningful gain that reflects the sustained appetite for well-located homes in one of the Bay Area's most consistently competitive markets.

Santa Clara and Santa Cruz Counties told a different story. Santa Clara County's median dipped 5.58% year-over-year to $2,050,000, and Santa Cruz County dropped 6.38% to $1,254,500. These aren't dramatic declines, but they're worth noting... particularly because both counties were posting gains just a couple of months ago. It's a reminder that even in a strong market, individual counties can move in different directions depending on local inventory, buyer composition, and price sensitivity.

The condo market delivered some genuinely surprising numbers this month. San Mateo County condos surged 24.06% year-over-year to $842,400, and Santa Cruz County condos skyrocketed 36.51% to $860,000... though moves of that magnitude in smaller markets often reflect a concentrated batch of high-value sales rather than a broad shift. Santa Clara County condos continued to struggle, declining 8.85% to $711,000. As always, the condo market is worth watching closely but interpreting carefully.

Inventory plunges as buyer demand remains strong

The inventory situation across Silicon Valley tightened considerably heading into summer... and the numbers are significant. There are currently 2,071 single-family homes for sale across the region... down 18.94% year-over-year. New listings are also running 11.79% below last year's pace, while sold listings are up 4.47%. That combination... fewer listings coming in, more sales going out... is exactly the kind of supply-demand imbalance that keeps competitive pressure on buyers.

The condo market is facing similar constraints, with 896 units currently available... down 9.77% year-over-year. Across both segments, the story is the same... demand is absorbing available inventory faster than new supply is entering the market. Until that equation shifts, buyers are going to continue navigating a landscape where options are limited and decisions need to be made quickly.

Single-family homes continue to fly off the shelves

The pace of sales across Silicon Valley's single-family market heading into summer is nothing short of remarkable. San Mateo County listings are moving in just 12 days, Santa Clara County in 11 days, and Santa Cruz County in 14 days... all extraordinarily fast by any measure. San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties did see slight year-over-year increases in days on market, but when you're talking about single-digit day differences at this price point, it barely registers as a slowdown.

The condo market showed some encouraging movement as well. San Mateo County condos are selling 15.15% faster than last year at 28 days, and Santa Cruz County condos are moving 37.84% faster at just 23 days. Santa Clara County condos are the exception, taking about 38.89% longer to sell at 25 days on average. The divergence within the condo market across these three counties is a good reminder that what's happening in one part of Silicon Valley doesn't always reflect what's happening everywhere else.

Silicon Valley is deeply entrenched in seller's market territory

One of the clearest ways to read a market is through Months of Supply Inventory, or MSI. California historically averages around three months... which is considered balanced. Below three months favors sellers. Above three months shifts the advantage toward buyers.

Silicon Valley's single-family market has actually become more of a seller's market compared to this time last year... which is saying something. San Mateo County sits at just 1.4 months of supply... down a dramatic 39.13% year-over-year. Santa Clara County is at 1.8 months, down 10%, and Santa Cruz County comes in at 3.1 months... down 34.04% from last year. All three counties are tighter than they were twelve months ago, and buyers in the single-family segment are feeling that pressure directly. Homes selling in under two weeks with inventory this constrained means there is very little margin for hesitation.

The condo market is offering more balance. San Mateo County sits at 3.5 months of supply, Santa Cruz County at 3.9 months, and Santa Clara County at 4.3 months. If a condo is part of your search in Silicon Valley, you have meaningfully more negotiating room here than in the single-family market... and in a region that rarely gives buyers much of an edge, that's worth taking seriously.

Bottom Line

Silicon Valley is heading into summer with single-family inventory at critically low levels, homes moving in under two weeks across all three counties, and seller's market conditions that have actually intensified compared to last year. San Mateo County is leading on price growth while Santa Clara and Santa Cruz pulled back modestly this month... but across all three, the pace and competition remain fierce on the single-family side. The condo market continues to offer buyers a more measured environment, particularly in Santa Clara County where inventory has loosened slightly. Whether you're buying or selling this summer, understanding the nuances of your specific county and property type is everything... because in Silicon Valley, the details are what make or break your outcome.

The Local Lowdown Data