The Local Lowdown

Marin pulls away while the rest of the region cools

August produced a genuine tale of two North Bays. Marin County had a standout month... with the median single-family home trading at $1,778,000, up 15.83% from $1,535,000 last August and up 1.6% from July. That's the strongest August reading Marin has posted in at least three years, and it caps a spring and summer stretch that peaked near $1,917,500 in April. When a market holds that kind of strength through the seasonal cooldown, it tells you something real about the underlying demand.

The rest of the region told a softer story. Sonoma County's median slipped to $793,000... down 4.46% year-over-year and its lowest monthly reading since late 2023, after a spring that had held steadily between $869,950 and $880,000. Solano County came in at $575,000... off 7.26% from last August and down 5.43% from July. Napa County actually improved month-over-month, rising 6.80% from July to $950,000... though that still represents a 3.06% decline compared to August 2025. Three counties pulling back while Marin surges ahead is a dynamic worth understanding, because it reflects very different buyer pools, price points, and demand drivers operating across this region simultaneously.

The condo market was similarly uneven. Marin condos edged up 0.81% year-over-year to $723,313... continuing a steady climb off the $524,000 low set in February. Sonoma condos rebounded to $454,998 from July's $422,500 but remain 5.86% below last August. Solano condos held near recent lows at $297,500... down 4.03% year-over-year. And Napa's small and notoriously volatile condo segment came in at $712,495... a 16.74% decline from last August, though one month's reading in a thin-volume market rarely tells the complete story.

Supply is disappearing faster than demand

The defining story of the North Bay this August is how quickly inventory is shrinking... and the numbers are striking. Single-family homes for sale fell to 2,778... a 12.3% drop from July's 3,167 and a significant 29.62% decline from the 3,947 homes available last August. For context, active single-family listings peaked above 4,100 in the summer of 2025 and have been running consistently below year-ago levels every single month of 2026. The condo side followed the same path, falling to just 349 units from 429 in July and 455 a year ago... a 23.30% year-over-year contraction.

What makes this inventory decline particularly meaningful is where it's coming from. This isn't weakening demand pulling fewer homes into contract... it's sellers choosing not to list. New single-family listings totaled just 930 in August... down 17.84% from last August's 1,132. New condo listings fell 26.92% to 95. Meanwhile, demand is holding firm. Single-family closings rose 4.20% year-over-year to 894 homes, and condo sales jumped 19.75% to 97 closings. Fewer sellers, steady buyers... that's the combination that keeps narrowing the gap between supply and demand and putting pricing power firmly in sellers' hands as we head into fall.

Marin buyers have less than a month to decide

Sales velocity improved across most of the North Bay's single-family market in August... and Marin County set the pace. The median days on market there came in at just 21 days... a 27.59% improvement over last August's 29 days, and remarkably consistent with the 18 to 20 day readings of June and July. When a market at Marin's price point is moving that consistently and that quickly, it tells you buyer urgency is very real. Solano County was close behind at 29 days... down 21.62% year-over-year and its fastest pace since spring. Sonoma County homes sold in 39 days... a 15.22% improvement over last August, though the trend has been drifting slower since April's brisk 26-day pace.

Napa County remained the region's most measured single-family market at 53 days... up slightly from last August and from 43 days in July. For buyers in Napa, that extra time to think is a genuine advantage... one that simply doesn't exist in Marin or Solano right now.

The condo side moved in the opposite direction across the board. Sonoma condos took 61 days to sell... up 48.78% from a year ago. Solano condos needed 55 days, a 25% increase. Marin condos came in at 49 days... up 11.36% year-over-year. And Napa's condo median stretched to 100 days from just 17 in July... a dramatic swing that reflects how thin the monthly sample sizes are in that segment rather than any meaningful market shift. The overall message is consistent... well-priced single-family homes are moving briskly across most of the region, while condo sellers need to come in with realistic expectations and genuine patience.

Sellers take control as supply tightens

One of the clearest ways to read a market is through Months of Supply Inventory, or MSI. California historically averages around three months... which is considered balanced. Below three months favors sellers. Above three months shifts the advantage toward buyers.

August brought a decisive tightening across the North Bay... and the year-over-year shifts are significant. Marin County's single-family market now sits at just 2.0 months of supply... down a striking 54.55% from 4.4 months last August and the tightest reading in three years. That puts Marin firmly and deeply in seller's territory. Solano County follows at 2.8 months... down 31.71% year-over-year and back below the balanced threshold after spending much of 2025 above it. Sonoma County sits at 3.4 months... a 32% improvement from 5.0 months last August and essentially right at the balanced line, leaning toward sellers. Napa County remains the region's most buyer-friendly single-family market at 6.1 months... though even that is down sharply from 9.1 months a year ago and represents the healthiest level Napa has seen since late 2024. The direction of travel in Napa is unmistakably toward tighter conditions, even if buyers there still have more room than anywhere else in the North Bay.

The condo market is following the same trajectory with a slight lag. Marin condos tightened to 3.1 months from 5.3 last August... a 41.51% improvement that puts that segment essentially in balance. Sonoma condos sit at 3.7 months, down 33.93%. Solano condos improved to 4.2 months from 5.8 a year ago. And Napa condos eased to 6.6 months from 8.7... still the most buyer-friendly condo market in the region, but tightening meaningfully. Across the board, the North Bay has shifted toward sellers over the past twelve months... and with new listings running well below last year's pace, that leverage looks set to carry well into fall.

Bottom Line

The North Bay's August market is one where Marin County is in a league of its own... posting a 15.83% year-over-year price gain, moving homes in just 21 days, and sitting at the tightest inventory levels in three years. The rest of the region is telling a more measured story, with prices softening modestly in Sonoma, Solano, and Napa... but supply is shrinking across all four counties at a pace that's providing a meaningful floor under values. Sellers are stepping back from the market just as buyers continue to show up and close... and that dynamic is what's driving conditions firmly toward sellers heading into fall. For buyers in Marin and Solano especially, the window to act is narrow and the competition is real. For buyers in Napa and on the condo side across the region, there's still more breathing room... but even those advantages are gradually narrowing. As always in the North Bay, knowing your specific county and property type is everything... because this is a region where the market you're in can look completely different depending on which side of a county line you're standing on.

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