The Local Lowdown

Marin holds its ground while the rest of the region eases off summer peaks

July brought the kind of late-summer softening that's pretty typical for the North Bay... but the year-over-year picture across most of the region remains constructive. Marin County posted a median sale price of $1,750,000... down 3.98% from June's $1,822,500, but still 5.26% above last July. A seasonal pullback at that price point isn't a cause for concern... it's a natural exhale after a strong spring and early summer run.

Solano County was actually the standout this month, with the median climbing 3.59% from June to $606,000... its highest reading since August 2025 and 1.06% above last July. Sonoma County pulled back to $835,000... a 4.57% dip from June and 1.18% below last July, ending a five-month stretch above the $869,000 mark. Napa County continued its uneven run at $896,500... down 2.55% from June and 3.08% year-over-year. Both Sonoma and Napa are worth watching as we head into fall, but neither is showing signs of a meaningful breakdown.

The condo picture flipped relative to recent months, with the higher-priced counties leading. Marin County condos rose to a median of $707,500... up 8.85% year-over-year and the strongest reading since February 2025. Napa County condos rebounded strongly from June's unusually low $510,000 to $724,500... a 1.33% year-over-year gain. Sonoma County condos told the opposite story at $420,000... down 18.84% from last July. Solano County condos slipped 13.88% to $302,500. As always with condo medians in smaller-volume markets, a single month's number can swing significantly... the direction of travel over several months matters more than any one data point.

Supply evaporates as listings dry up

If there's one story defining the North Bay this July, it's the disappearance of inventory... and it's happening fast. Single-family homes for sale fell to just 2,645 units... down 17.96% from June and a striking 34.04% from the 4,010 units available last July. That's the leanest July supply in the entire two-year data series... and it means buyers had 1,365 fewer homes to choose from compared to this time last year. The condo side followed the same path, with just 361 units for sale... down 19.42% from June and 21.52% year-over-year.

What makes this inventory drop particularly notable is where it's coming from. Sellers simply aren't coming to market. New single-family listings totaled just 889 in July... down 24.98% from last July's 1,185 and the lowest July count on record. New condo listings fell 21.88% to 100. And yet demand is holding firm... 981 single-family homes closed in July, up 2.51% year-over-year, and condo sales rose 10.84% to 92. Steady absorption against a shrinking pool of listings is exactly the combination that keeps pricing power firmly with sellers... and it strongly suggests the supply squeeze will carry well into the fall season.

Marin's 20-day market sets the pace

The pace of single-family sales improved across nearly the entire region in July... and Marin County set the tone. Single-family homes there sold in a median of just 20 days... 41.18% faster than the 34 days recorded last July. That's a dramatic improvement that reflects how motivated and prepared buyers in Marin are operating right now. Solano County held steady at 31 days for the third consecutive month... a 16.22% improvement year-over-year. Sonoma County ticked up slightly to 35 days from 32 in June, but that still represents a 14.63% improvement from last July's 41 days. Napa County remained the region's most measured single-family market at 43 days... essentially flat with June and slightly above last July... giving buyers there a bit more breathing room than elsewhere in the North Bay.

The condo market was more scattered, as it often is. Napa County condos posted a remarkable 17 days on market... down from 78 days in June, though that figure rests on a small number of closings and should be read with caution. Marin County condos came in at 55 days... a 15.38% year-over-year improvement. Sonoma County condos improved 9.62% to 47 days. Solano County was the clear laggard, with condos taking 63 days... roughly double last July's 31-day pace. For condo sellers in Solano County especially, pricing accurately and presenting well from day one is more important than ever right now.

Sellers take firm control heading into fall

One of the clearest ways to read a market is through Months of Supply Inventory, or MSI. California historically averages around three months... which is considered balanced. Below three months favors sellers. Above three months shifts the advantage toward buyers.

July's inventory collapse pushed the North Bay decisively toward sellers across most of the region. Marin County's single-family market now sits at just 1.7 months of supply... down from 2.4 in June and a dramatic 60.47% below last July's 4.3 months. That's the tightest market in the entire region by a wide margin... and one of the tightest readings we've seen in this dataset. Solano County fell to 2.8 months... down 30% year-over-year and firmly in seller's territory. Sonoma County landed at 3.2 months... a 39.62% year-over-year decline that puts it right at the balanced threshold and leaning clearly toward sellers.

Napa County remains the region's lone buyer's market at 6.1 months... though even that is a meaningful improvement from June's 7.7 months and 33.70% below last July's 9.2. The direction of travel in Napa is unmistakably toward tighter conditions, even if buyers there still have more room to negotiate than anywhere else in the North Bay.

On the condo side, conditions are tightening fast as well. Marin County condos dropped to 3.1 months of supply... down from 4.8 in June and 47.46% below last July... essentially a balanced market now. Sonoma County condos sit at 4.0 months, down 28.57% year-over-year. Solano County comes in at 4.6 months and Napa at 6.7 months... still giving condo buyers in those two counties meaningful room to be selective and negotiate thoughtfully.

Bottom Line

The North Bay is heading into fall with inventory at some of the lowest levels this market has seen in years... and that shift is reshaping the balance of power in a real and meaningful way. Marin County is the clearest example of how quickly conditions can flip... from 4.3 months of single-family supply last July to just 1.7 months today. Solano and Sonoma Counties are following close behind. Sellers across three of the four counties are negotiating from a position of genuine strength, and with new listings running nearly 25% below last year's pace, there's no obvious near-term relief for buyers on the supply side.

Napa County continues to move to its own beat... offering buyers more time, more options, and more negotiating room than the rest of the region. And on the condo side, particularly in Napa and Solano Counties, buyers still have leverage... though even that is gradually narrowing as absorption picks up and inventory shrinks. Whether you're buying or selling anywhere in the North Bay this fall, the most important thing you can do is understand the specific conditions of your county and property type... because the difference between a buyer's market and a seller's market right now can literally be one county line away.