The Local Lowdown

Marin and Sonoma lead the spring rally

April brought some genuinely encouraging news to the western end of the North Bay. Marin County led the charge with the median single-family home selling for $1,905,000... up 4.38% year-over-year. Sonoma County also had a solid month, with the median rising 2.35% to $870,000. These are meaningful gains that reflect real buyer appetite in two of the region's most sought-after markets.

The eastern and northern parts of the region told a different story. Solano County dipped 1.78% to $579,000 and Napa County declined 3.72% to $905,000... continuing a softer trend we've been watching play out over the past several months. On the condo side, though, the picture was actually more broadly positive. Marin County condos surged 11.44% year-over-year, Sonoma gained 8.21%, and Solano ticked up 2.61%. Napa County condos were the lone exception, slipping 13.92% compared to last April. As always, the condo market can swing in ways that don't always reflect the broader story... but the overall direction this month was encouraging.

Inventory crunch continues despite spring selling season

We're at the peak of spring selling season, and yet the inventory picture across the North Bay remains stubbornly constrained. Single-family home inventory now stands at 2,481 units... down 36.98% compared to this time last year. The condo market is facing a similar shortage, with just 347 units available, a 24.57% year-over-year decline.

There are some bright spots worth noting, though. Sales activity is up 9.01% year-over-year for single-family homes and 11.24% for condos... a sign that buyers are actively engaging with what's available. In fact, April saw 980 single-family home sales alongside 988 new listings hitting the market... a remarkably tight balance between supply and demand. When absorption is running that close to new supply, it keeps upward pressure on prices in the markets where demand is strongest. Until we see a more sustained wave of new listings, that dynamic isn't going away.

Homes are selling faster than they have in years

The pace of sales across most of the North Bay picked up meaningfully in April. Marin County led the way with a median of just 13 days on market... matching last April's already-impressive figure. Sonoma and Solano Counties both came in at 26 days, each improving about 10% compared to last year. For three of the four counties, selling in under a month has become the norm... and that's a strong signal of where buyer motivation really stands.

Napa County remains the outlier, with the median single-family home spending 54 days on market... up 63.64% year-over-year. That's a notable divergence from the rest of the region, and worth keeping in mind if Napa is part of your search. On the condo side, results were mixed... Napa County condos are actually moving 31.25% faster than last year, while Sonoma and Solano County condos are taking about 19% longer to sell. The condo market continues to vary quite a bit depending on location and price point.

Seller's market conditions intensify as spring peaks

One of the clearest ways to read a market is through Months of Supply Inventory, or MSI. California historically averages around three months... which is considered balanced. Below three months favors sellers. Above three months shifts the advantage toward buyers.

April pushed most of the North Bay's single-family market firmly into seller's territory. Marin County sits at just 2.2 months of supply... down a striking 53.19% year-over-year. Solano County is at 2.6 months, down 23.53%, and Sonoma County at 2.8 months, down 48.15%. Even Napa County, which has historically hovered closer to balanced, has tightened to 6 months... a 33.33% decline from last year. Sellers across the region are holding real leverage, and that's especially true in Marin and Sonoma where inventory is at its most constrained.

The condo market is giving buyers a bit more room to breathe, though conditions are tightening there too. Marin and Sonoma Counties are both at 3.8 months of supply, Solano at 4.1 months, and Napa at 5.6 months. If a condo is on your radar anywhere in the North Bay, you still have more negotiating power than single-family buyers... but that window is narrowing as we head into summer.

Bottom Line

The North Bay this spring is a market where inventory is calling the shots. Single-family homes are moving fast in most counties, supply is well below last year's levels, and sellers are firmly in control across the region... with Marin and Sonoma leading both on price gains and competitive conditions. Napa County continues to move to its own beat, giving buyers there a bit more time and leverage than elsewhere. On the condo side, buyers still have options and negotiating room, but that advantage is gradually shrinking. Whether you're buying or selling in the North Bay right now, understanding the nuances of your specific county and property type makes all the difference... because this is very much a market where the details matter.

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