The Local Lowdown

Three out of four counties post year-over-year gains

May brought some genuinely good news for North Bay homeowners... with three of the four counties posting year-over-year price gains in the single-family market. Sonoma County led the way with the median coming in at $880,000... up 2.33% compared to last May. Napa County gained 1.47% to $929,500, and Solano County ticked up 1.19% to $597,475. Seeing broad-based price growth across three counties simultaneously is an encouraging sign that buyer demand across much of the region remains real and active.

Marin County was the lone exception on the single-family side, with the median dipping 4.70% year-over-year to $1,860,000. That said, Marin remains one of the most desirable and expensive markets in the entire Bay Area... a modest pullback in a market at that price point doesn't tell a story of weakness so much as it reflects the natural ebbs and flows of a high-value segment. The condo market told a more mixed story this month. Sonoma County condos dropped 10.73% year-over-year, Napa fell 5.44%, and Solano declined 3.55%. Marin County condos were the bright spot, bucking the trend with a 7.29% gain... another reminder that this market rarely moves in one single direction across the board.

Inventory remains in short supply as summer approaches

The inventory picture heading into summer is one that continues to define... and constrain... the North Bay market. Single-family home inventory across the region now sits at just 2,629 units... down 36% compared to this time last year. The condo market is similarly tight, with just 348 units available... a 25.32% year-over-year decline. And new listings aren't keeping pace either, running 31.73% below last year for single-family homes and 29.77% below for condos.

On the demand side, single-family home sales are actually up 3.37% year-over-year... which means buyers are absorbing what little inventory exists at a healthy clip. Condo sales are down 5.68%, which aligns with the softer pricing we're seeing in that segment. When you have supply falling this sharply while single-family demand holds steady or grows, competitive conditions for buyers aren't going away anytime soon. The math simply doesn't support a more relaxed environment for buyers... at least not on the single-family side.

Marin County homes are selling at lightning speed

The pace of sales across the North Bay picked up meaningfully in May, and Marin County stood out in a big way. The median days on market in Marin came in at just 13 days... a 23.53% improvement compared to last May. That's an exceptionally fast pace for a market at that price point, and it reflects just how motivated and prepared buyers in Marin County are right now. Sonoma County also moved faster, with single-family homes selling in 30 days... a 6.25% year-over-year improvement.

Solano County came in at 32 days, slightly slower than last year, and Napa County continued to lag at 44 days... up 29.41% year-over-year. Napa remains the most measured of the four counties, giving buyers there a bit more time to make decisions than elsewhere in the region. On the condo side, Sonoma, Solano, and Marin all showed meaningful improvements in pace... with Napa County condos being the clear outlier at a median of 81 days on market. Two very different experiences depending on where and what you're buying.

Summer heats up with seller's market conditions

One of the clearest ways to read a market is through Months of Supply Inventory, or MSI. California historically averages around three months... which is considered balanced. Below three months favors sellers. Above three months shifts the advantage toward buyers.

As we head into summer, the North Bay's single-family market is tightening further. Marin County sits at just 2.2 months of supply... down a remarkable 55.10% year-over-year. Solano County is at 2.5 months, down 30.56%, and Sonoma County at 3.1 months, down 45.61%... right at the edge of seller's territory. Even Napa County, which remains the most buyer-friendly of the four at 6.6 months, has tightened by 28.26% compared to last year. The direction of travel across all four counties is unmistakably toward tighter conditions.

The condo market is sitting closer to balance, with Marin and Sonoma hovering around 3.8 to 3.9 months of supply, Solano at 4 months, and Napa at 5.4 months. For condo buyers in the North Bay, there's still more breathing room here than on the single-family side... but even that advantage is slowly narrowing as we move deeper into the busiest season of the year.

Bottom Line

The North Bay this May is a market heading into summer with real momentum on the seller's side. Three of four counties posted single-family price gains, inventory is running 36% below last year, and homes in Marin and Sonoma are moving fast. Napa County continues to move at its own pace, offering buyers more time and more negotiating room than the rest of the region. The condo market across the board gives buyers a more balanced playing field... but those conditions are gradually tightening too. Wherever you are in your real estate journey across the North Bay, the window for a more relaxed buying environment is narrowing... and having the right strategy in place before you need it makes all the difference.

Local Lowdown Data