May 2025 - San Francisco Market Insights

San Francisco Market Insights | The Local Lowdown

At a Glance

• Condo prices are on the rise, showing renewed strength after several months of decline.

• Inventory remains a challenge, with both single-family and condo listings slipping year-over-year.

• Sellers still hold the upper hand, as homes continue to command over-asking sale prices.

Condo Prices Are Rebounding
After five straight months of year-over-year declines, San Francisco’s condo market may finally be turning a corner. In April, the median condo sale price climbed 9.13% compared to the same time last year. It’s a notable shift that points to renewed buyer interest and confidence.

Single-family homes also continue their steady climb, with prices up 2.12% year-over-year—a signal of sustained strength in that segment.

Low Inventory, High Stakes
Inventory remains the market’s most persistent obstacle. In April:

• Single-family home listings declined 6.29%

• Condo listings dropped 7.52%

This ongoing shortage is keeping pressure on prices and limiting buyer options. The 21.17% year-over-year drop in condo sales is particularly telling, underscoring just how constrained the market has become.

Over-Asking Remains the Norm—Especially for Single-Family Homes
Despite the tight inventory, demand remains strong—especially in the single-family segment. On average, single-family homes are selling for 14.2% over list price, reflecting fierce competition.

Condos are moving at a more measured pace, with average sale prices coming in just 0.4% above asking—a more approachable environment for buyers seeking value.

Buyer or Seller’s Market? It Depends on the Property Type
We look to Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) to understand market balance. Around three months of supply signals a neutral market. Less favors sellers. More favors buyers.

• Single-family homes: 1.7 months of supply → Seller’s market

• Condos: 3.9 months of supply → Buyer’s market

The Bottom Line
San Francisco’s housing market continues to offer a tale of two segments. Condos are showing signs of a comeback, with prices up over 9% year-over-year. Single-family homes remain competitive, driven by limited supply and strong demand. While inventory is still trending downward across the board, the condo market presents opportunity—with more balanced pricing and greater negotiating room.

Whether you're looking to enter the market or maximize the sale of your home, navigating San Francisco real estate requires a hyper-local strategy and a deep understanding of market dynamics. Let’s talk about how we can position you for success.